elon musk 50 chance starship explodes on first orbital launch

Elon Musk has hinted that when Starship, SpaceX's multiplanetary rocket, launches, that it will have a 50% chance of exploding. What does this mean for SpaceX?

Starhip Launch

As SpaceX is preparing for its first orbital launch of its Starship rocket, Elon Musk has said that there is a 50% chance that the rocket could blow up on its first orbital attempt.

The good news is that other Starship rockets are waiting on stand-by in case the first one blows up.

Cost of Starship

The Starship program from idea to inception most likely cost around $2 billion. Each individual Starship will not cost that much, however. An individual Starship rocket costs about $240 million - still a hefty sum of money.

Size of Starship and Power

Starship is an impressive size at 50 meters tall (164 feet), with a diameter of 9 meters (almost 30 feet). It has a total weight around 120 tons and has the capacity to carry about 100 people.

It uses six Raptor engines and liquid methane and oxygen are its fuel. They provide about 31 million Newtons of thrust.

Getting to Mars

Elon Musk has stated that he wants to colonize Mars. At one point, he thought 2024 might be possible, but that's looking very unlikely. Most likely, it's going to be toward the end of this decade or beyond.

There will need to be multiple success launches with Starship to the point it is very predictable if it is going to be successful or not.


Starship is massive and expensive. Hopefully Starship doesn't explode when it launches. If it does, however, SpaceX will gather data and correct what went wrong and eventually get a launch done that doesn't explode. Eventually, they will have regular launches without issue.

Do you think Starship will explode when it launches?